So close, so far: is the right punching below its weight?

Election after election, patriotic and national-conservative parties are breaking through. 2027 is set to be a major test of the power of patriotic and sovereigntist forces, with big elections in France, Spain, Italy, Poland and elsewhere. In the European Parliament, Patriots for Europe and the ECR sit almost level as the Parliament’s third and fourth groups, and a conservative coalition has recently forced almost unprecedented action on migration and returns.

But how far can the right-wing alternative really go? While the firewalls and cordons sanitaires are under pressure, the centrist and centre-left legacy parties still have many opportunities to retain power. From a hostile press corps to grand (or sometimes Frankenstein) coalitions, and a healthy dose of institutional warfare and legal lawfare, many still believe that the patriotic parties can be denied power. The European Union – for its part – will not take the rise of the populists lying down: each week it strengthens its powers against “foreign interference” and “misinformation” which are a barely concealed attack on the patriotic right.

But the problems are not just external. Inside the patriotic movement, there are both serious disagreements and sometimes a lack of clarity on key questions – as well as electoral hurdles to clear.

Disagreements exist on both geopolitical questions like Russia and America as well as domestic issues like deportations and the economy. Sometimes, the right-wing parties can seem vague or flip-floppy on issues like European integration and reform. And some also identify a lack of ideological vision – do sovereigntist parties really have a coherent alternative to the technocratic consensus that has dominated European politics? Is this reflected in the difficulties that many alternative parties face in breaking through their electoral ceiling?

There is also a fundamental question at the European level. Tensions between the different political groups obviously have a real political basis, but do these tensions sometimes get in the way of fighting a common enemy? In addition, many have long complained of politicians in the European Parliament ‘going native’ – becoming too accommodating to the EU machine. How combative should those in Brussels and Strasbourg be to the incessant attempts by the EU to expand its powers? And do our politicians often miss some of the problems ‘hiding in plain sight’ – the EU is expert at dressing up attacks on speech as “child protection” or attacks on farmers behind “sustainability”. Do we need grander horizons than winning the odd vote?

Freedom and Sovereignty Initiative Europe wants to help provide answers on both the external and internal challenges facing the right in Europe. We believe that we need much greater clarity and theoretical depth on these crucial issues – and that bold ideas will be needed to break the current impasse.

This evening will be a rare opportunity to bring together representatives from patriotic, sovereigntist and genuinely conservative political forces to ask whether the European right is merely a political vibe or ready for a serious breakthrough. Is there a serious intellectual and organisational project behind the rhetoric, or does that work still have to be done?